Even though I almost certainly don’t have enough time, I am still seeing if I can get a simplified router working with GRIBs and my polars. The right way to do this would be the ‘nudged elastic band’ method, but it is complicated and I don’t have time to figure it out. The Furball is a more brute-force approach, so let’s see how far we can run with it. Here we are using real winds and O-34 polars, with time step of 3 hours and a random change of heading of [-10,10]deg at each time step. The wind for the duration of the timestep is assumed constant. There are 240 trails propagated over 6 days. Radii from the finish are drawn in 100nm rings.
I didn’t want to get Expedition because it is expensive, I don’t trust my polars all that much, and even if I did I doubt we can average even 80% of what the polars promise. And I will look at the GRIBs and use my judgement at the end of the day, anyway. This Mathematica program will probably choke my little netbook, to boot!